Monday, November 1, 2010

Prediction time!

Well, since every other political blogger is putting their money where their mouth is, I guess I should too.

US Senate

This one will be real close. With the announcement that Joe Liberman may caucus with the GOP should there be a party flip or a 50-50, it makes the Senate races all that more interesting. I do think that the Senate flips straight out and Liberman starts to vote with the GOP, giving a 52-48 majority to the Republicans.

Locally, it's practically a foregone conclusion that Ron Johnson defeats Russ Feingold. It's just a matter by how much. There are reports that the turnout in Milwaukee could be as high as 55%. If that holds true, it will be a narrower margin. The problem is, despite how liberal this city is, I haven't seen a large amount of yard signs/bumper stickers for any of the Democratic candidates. While far from scientific, that leads me to think that the turnout may be a bit lower than they think. If that's true, Johnson wins by at least 4 points.

US House

This is a slam dunk. The Republicans will take back the house, the only thing in question is by how much? I have heard anywhere from 50 to 76 seats. I think the 50-55 range is closer to the truth, but we will know for sure how big of a tide this is by 9pm CDT. The WI-3 race will be a key. If Ron Kind loses out there, you know that things are going to go very badly for the Democrats nationwide.

There really are only the 3 seats that are in play in Wisconsin. As far as the 3rd goes, it truly is a tossup. I haven't followed that race as closely as the others, but I think Kind will hold on. The 7th and 8th are runaways for the GOP. Sean Duffy will dominate in the 7th while Reid Ribble holds on to win in the 8th. Steve Kagen turned himself into the Dan Quayle of this generation. I think the GOP could have run a stuffed bunny against Kagen and received 40% of the vote. There is a challenge in the WI-4, and despite what Dan Sebring is saying on his Facebook page, he really doesn't have a real shot. Even with the reports of vandalism to his supporters' homes, it's not going to be enough to overcome the long odds.

Wisconsin Governor

Again, this is almost a sure thing. Tom Barrett has been the reluctant candidate all along. I'm sure, deep down, he never really wanted to be governor. He's happy being the mayor of Milwaukee. The president and the DNC sweet talked him into this. Scott Walker should win by a comfortable margin. Again, Milwaukee turnout will determine by how much Walker wins, but I'm thinking a 59-41% margin is realistically attainable.

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